Carlos Cañizares Martínez

policy work

“Lessons from forecast averaging residential investment” (with Gabe De Bondt and Arne Gieseck)

SUERF Policy Brief, No 594. LINK

Summary: This policy brief summarises three key lessons for policymakers, modellers, and forecasters from recent work on forecasting real housing investment (Cañizares Martínez et al., 2023a and 2023b). Our study offers a new approach to conditionally forecast residential investment in the largest euro area countries and the euro area. We estimate many models using a wide set of determinants and select the 50 best performing models. This forecast averaging approach addresses considerable model uncertainty in the case of residential housing investment.

“Monitoring recession probabilities in Slovakia” (with Viera Mráziková)

National Bank of Slovakia, Economic and Monetary Developments, Autumn 2022, Box 3. LINK

Summary: This article uses a monthly Markov switching model along the lines of Chauvet and Piger (2008) to estimate the probability of being in a recession in Slovakia since 2009. The model is fed with four indicators of real activity such as industrial production, employees, turnover, and wages. Two recessive periods emerged in the early months of 2009 and during the Covid-19 pandemic, between March to May 2020. Overall, the results are consistent with those obtained using instead the model of Leiva-León et al. (2020), used with Slovak data by Toth (2021).